Actuarial forecasting lead

Title: Actuarial Forecasting Lead
Location: Remote US
Duration: 12 Months
Industry: Warranty / Supply Chain

Job Description

Seeking an experienced Actuarial Forecasting Lead with 12 15 years of experience in actuarial modelling, claims forecasting, loss development, and financial performance analysis for insurance, extended warranty, or device protection products.

Key Responsibilities

• Develop, review, and improve actuarial models for claims forecasting, loss estimation, and reserving.
• Analyze historical claims data, frequency, severity, product failures, and repair/replacement costs.
• Evaluate loss ratios, ultimate losses, and forecast assumptions to improve accuracy.
• Perform actual-versus-expected analysis, back-testing, and scenario modelling.
• Apply statistical modelling and AI/ML techniques to enhance forecasting capabilities.
• Collaborate with actuarial, finance, supply chain, claims, data science, and technology teams.
• Lead model validation, stakeholder discussions, and business acceptance.

Required Skills & Qualifications

• 12 15 years of relevant actuarial forecasting and modelling experience.
• Strong expertise in claims frequency/severity, loss ratio projections, reserving, and loss development.
• Experience in extended warranty, device protection, service contracts, or specialty insurance.
• Hands-on experience with historical claims, exposure data, and predictive modelling.
• Strong analytical skills and experience with actuarial tools and cross-functional teams.
• Bachelor's or Master's degree in Actuarial Science, Statistics, Mathematics, or a related field.
• Actuarial certification is preferred but not mandatory.