Actuarial Forecasting Lead

• The Principal Actuary is the senior individual-contributor specialist responsible for developing an integrated quantitative risk framework linking insurance-driven mobile-device claims, rapidly depreciating inventory assets, and future physical supply and disposition commitments. The role converts uncertainty in demand, recoverable value, and market conditions into actionable risk management decisions.
• This is a hands-on modeling position with no direct reports. The successful candidate must combine credentialed actuarial expertise in insurance claims and exposures with practical experience valuing physically delivered forwards, optional-volume agreements, or comparable structured physical supply arrangements. Physical settlement is the immediate focus; potential cash settlement is a longer-term capability.
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Primary Job Accountabilities / Responsibilities:

Insurance claims and exposure modeling | 25%

• Build and validate probabilistic claims-frequency, cohort, and exposure models using insured-device populations, claims history, policy conditions, product mix, device age, churn, and external drivers.
• Produce calibrated time-phased demand distributions by client, program, model family, and horizon; distinguish insured claims incidence from repair, replacement, substitution, and SKU-level fulfillment outcomes.
• Backtest assumptions, explain forecast error, and partner with Data Science to translate predicted claims into decision-ready forecasts.

Inventory valuation and financial risk | 25%

• Model depreciation, residual values, recoverability, liquidation discounts, price volatility, liquidity, obsolescence, and concentration across mobile-device inventory.
• Assess the joint impact of claims, future supply, secondary-market prices, repair yields, and inventory holdings using stochastic scenarios, Monte Carlo simulation, expected loss, tail-risk metrics, and stress tests.
• Provide forward-looking risk estimates and evidence for Finance-owned monthly inventory reserve assessments while distinguishing economic-risk outputs from accounting measurements.

Physical contract valuation and risk transfer | 20%

• Price and assess physically settled forward purchases and sales, structured supply or offtake agreements, volume-flex commitments, and deliverable purchase/sale options.
• Model strike or delivery prices, optional quantities, exercise timing, specifications, grading, counterparty performance, delivery terms, and embedded optionality; compare contract economics to spot transactions and inventory carry.
• Partner with Procurement, Treasury, Legal, and Accounting on risk controls and commercial structures; support exploration of cash-settled products only after adequate benchmark and governance capabilities exist.

Inventory portfolio optimization | 15%

• Integrate demand and market-value simulations to evaluate risk-adjusted buy, hold, repair, transfer, sell, and hedge decisions at model-family and portfolio levels.
• Quantify working capital, stockout exposure, purchasing premiums, expected depreciation, and tail-risk tradeoffs to propose practical exposure limits and hedging thresholds.

Technical modeling and governance | 10%

• Write reproducible Python and SQL models and document data lineage, parameters, validation, backtesting, assumption changes, and model limitations.
• Coordinate with the Forecasting Lead on integrated work-product quality; retain ownership of actuarial methodology, assumptions, and specialist model judgments.

Cross-functional leadership and capability development | 5%

Establish common risk terminology, influence planning and procurement decisions without direct authority, and help develop the enterprise inventory-risk methodology.

Communicate complex probability and valuation findings to Supply Chain, Finance, Actuarial, Risk, and executive stakeholders.

Management Responsibility

• Individual contributor; no direct or indirect people-management responsibility. Serves as the senior technical authority for actuarial and risk valuation methodology, mentors colleagues, and may coordinate cross-functional working groups.

Financial Responsibility

• No independent purchase, trade, or reserve-approval authority. Develops quantitative recommendations influencing inventory working capital, economic risk limits, contract valuation, and reserve inputs; Procurement, Treasury, Legal, Risk, and Finance retain approval authorities.

Required Experience, Skills, and Knowledge

• Hold an active professional actuarial credential (ACAS, FCAS, ASA, FSA, or recognized international actuarial equivalent). A CERA designation alone does not replace the base actuarial credential.
• Demonstrated hands-on professional experience developing or materially validating insurance claims-frequency, exposure-based, or comparable insurance predictive-risk models.
• Demonstrated hands-on experience valuing or pricing physically delivered forward, offtake, volume-flex, commodity, or asset supply contracts with meaningful delivery obligations or embedded optionality; theoretical coursework alone is insufficient.
• 8+ years of relevant experience spanning actuarial modeling, enterprise or asset risk, physical-market contract economics, and quantitative decision support.
• Bachelor's degree in actuarial science, statistics, mathematics, quantitative finance, economics, engineering, or a closely related discipline.
• Advanced stochastic simulation, financial risk modeling, calibration, sensitivity analysis, tail-risk measurement, and evaluation of correlated exposure.
• Strong hands-on Python and SQL proficiency; ability to design models, independently inspect model code, and explain methods and commercial implications.
• Demonstrated ability to work with incomplete market data, communicate uncertainty, and navigate cross-functional decisions with strong ethical judgment.

Preferred Experience, Skills, and Knowledge

• CERA or advanced enterprise-risk/financial-risk credential in addition to a base actuarial credential.
• Experience in mobile devices, electronics resale, inventory financing, physical commodities, or another market with steep depreciation and limited liquidity.
• Experience with risk-adjusted optimization, supply chain planning, repair operations, or secondary-market pricing.
• Familiarity with inventory valuation accounting and derivative accounting review processes, while recognizing Finance and Accounting as decision owners.
• Experience implementing governed enterprise quantitative models and collaborating with commercial supply or procurement teams.

Measures of Success

• Calibration and accuracy of claims distributions; quality and explainability of economic inventory-risk estimates; usefulness of physical-contract pricing decisions; repeatable model controls; measurable risk-adjusted inventory outcomes.