Develop Carrier-specific demand forecast models for the North America Residential and Light Commercial markets
Maintain and refine industry demand models to forecast short-term and long-term North America Residential and Light Commercial HVAC market demand
Generate supplemental industry outlook forecast scenarios through sensitivity analysis against key variables and assumptions
Leverage, maintain, and refine Carrier’s demand sensing forecast for Residential and Light Commercial to detect and respond to short-term changes in customer demand
Track forecast model accuracy using KPIs such as MAPE
Prepare monthly executive-level demand outlook reports
Collaborate with North America Sales & Operations Planning personnel to mutually develop the SIOP monthly demand forecast for North America Residential and Light Commercial
Incorporate U.S. and Canadian regulatory changes into the forecast and demand planning models
Maintain an in-depth knowledge of designated markets and trends through monitoring industry reports, market research, and relevant macroeconomic data

Bachelor’s degree
5+ years of combined experience in demand forecasting, economic modelling, and data analytics
2+ years’ experience with time-series modeling (ARIMA, regression, leading indicator models)
5+ years’ experience in developing executive-level summaries and presentations
5+ years’ experience with Microsoft Excel and PowerPoint
Master’s degree, preferably in Economics, Statistics, Finance, Data Science/Analytics, Supply Chain, or related field (preferred)
Experience with business intelligence, analytics, data visualization and Supply Chain management tools such as Power BI, Tableau, ThinkCell, Kinaxis and similar tools (preferred)
Experience with statistical modeling, data science tools such as Python, SAS, cloud platforms or similar tools (preferred)
Familiarity with U.S. and Canadian HVAC industry, including current and future regulations and standards, market dynamics and distribution channels (preferred)
Knowledge of macroeconomic trends and factors and their impact on HVAC demand (e.g. regional climate trends, mortgage interest rates, residential new construction starts, existing home sales) (preferred)

Health Care benefits: Medical, Dental, Vision; wellness incentives
Retirement benefits
Time Off and Leave: Paid vacation days, up to 15 days; paid sick days, up to 5 days; paid personal leave, up to 5 days; paid holidays, up to 13 days; birth and adoption leave; parental leave; family and medical leave; bereavement leave; jury duty; military leave; purchased vacation
Disability: Short-term and long-term disability
Life Insurance and Accidental Death and Dismemberment
Tax-Advantaged Accounts: Health Savings Account; Healthcare Spending Account; Dependent Care Spending Account
Tuition Assistance

Data Science Lead, Forecasting

Key skills